Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 36.581842 39.624136 42.973919 46.970342 51.655428 57.034846 63.771146
2025-08-17 31.812335 35.614270 40.059482 45.743687 52.981349 62.137671 75.052088
2025-08-24 29.148571 33.257508 38.234167 44.875136 53.796082 65.863372 84.470758
2025-08-31 27.293764 31.622476 37.019176 44.485113 54.997496 70.124230 95.598436
2025-09-07 26.164446 30.736638 36.589673 44.966112 57.313483 76.237662 111.335999
2025-09-14 24.854709 29.491866 35.543977 44.427837 57.994335 79.870408 123.962003
2025-09-21 23.491806 28.072962 34.135047 43.198869 57.408327 81.232517 132.607960
2025-09-28 22.374921 26.909096 32.984329 42.222372 57.064466 82.899810 142.552490
2025-10-05 22.290802 27.123439 33.749993 44.152572 61.679637 94.590928 182.866364
2025-10-12 21.865769 26.834654 33.765211 44.909440 64.393549 103.320475 222.995276
2025-10-19 21.464871 26.550966 33.758275 45.613710 67.099605 112.821137 276.905343
2025-10-26 20.965083 26.096834 33.462329 45.805479 68.860318 120.710417 337.371153
2025-11-02 20.241669 25.329226 32.709948 45.275740 69.368847 126.325141 403.933800
2025-11-09 19.455498 24.439368 31.726858 44.280555 68.831323 129.174263 465.468021
2025-11-16 18.766183 23.657782 30.862999 43.412650 68.422212 132.283125 544.107973
2025-11-23 18.244153 23.099817 30.316481 43.058254 69.057019 138.801852 697.309616
2025-11-30 17.935883 22.843346 30.226417 43.508452 71.523564 152.330533 1119.441453
2025-12-07 17.448036 22.296627 29.642250 43.001150 71.736110 158.412334 1598.803538
2025-12-14 16.856281 21.572565 28.740025 41.838538 70.264810 157.809975 1909.844222
2025-12-21 16.345748 20.956048 27.988299 40.914256 69.265761 158.816048 2503.872308
2025-12-28 16.403773 21.205233 28.657716 42.740635 75.280227 192.457933 NaN
2026-01-04 16.243562 21.110643 28.751013 43.455936 78.663049 218.433269 NaN
2026-01-11 16.080752 21.004549 28.817347 44.121070 82.069314 249.160253 NaN